CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-11-02T02:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18161/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a long-duration M1.6 flare from AR 12891 and a corresponding eruption signature can be seen in the available SDO AIA imagery toward the center of the Earth-facing disk as early as 2021-11-01T23:37Z. The shock was most probably caused by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-01T18:38Z CME and exhibited a dramatic increase in B_tot first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in temperature the next morning. There was an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T19:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T17:42Z (-9.3h, +16.5h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2021-11-03T09:34Z and 2021-11-04T13:19Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T20:42Z) for 100% of simulations. - STEREO B between about 2021-11-03T14:21Z and 2021-11-04T14:26Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T23:46Z) for 79% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-11-03T08:25Z and 2021-11-04T10:10Z (average arrival 2021-11-03T17:42Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 69% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 5-7 range (minor to strong). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_STA_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_arrival_STB.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102_STB_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-11-03_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102/Detailed_results_20211102_024800_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX102.txtLead Time: -0.25 hour(s)
Difference: 1.68 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-11-03T19:38Z
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